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he presidents of both houses of Brazil’s Congress have voiced confidence that legislators will approve a flagship pension reform supported by President Jair Bolsonaro in the next few months. The reform, unpopular with Brazilians because it raises retirement ages, is widely seen as key to restoring the health of Latin America’s biggest economy by saving the public finances some R$1tn ($255bn) over the coming decade. With public debt forecast by the IMF to reach 90 per cent of gross domestic product this year, the pensions overhaul would go some way to restoring confidence in Brazil’s fiscal position and wooing foreign investors. “It will pass and will pass with a good result,” said Rodrigo Maia, the speaker of Brazil’s lower house, who controls Congress’s legislative agenda. “I think we are working on the construction of support within parliament, the support within society. The government is already being more collaborative.” When Mr Bolsonaro was elected president last year, investors overlooked his lack of management skills and history of racist, misogynist and homophobic comments in the hope that he would deliver the reform needed to jump-start the economy. We must have a pension reform. Otherwise, we are going to enter into a social collapse. Hunger has come back to Brazil, poverty and unemployment are rising Rodrigo Maia, lower house speaker But some critics have complained that he has since spent more time stoking controversy over social issues than putting reforms into effect, leading the economy to shrink in the first quarter of this year — the first contraction since 2016. Mr Maia said the administration’s dialogue with legislators had “improved” as Paulo Guedes, Mr Bolsonaro’s economic tsar, had regularly met with them to build support for the proposals. “This generates trust,” he said. A congressional commission will review the reform package in June or July. There will then be two votes in the lower house and two in the Senate. The bill could be approved by September, said Mr Maia. “We must have a pension reform. Otherwise, we are going to enter into a social collapse. Hunger has come back to Brazil, poverty and unemployment are rising,” said Mr Maia. “We will have a pension reform that, at least, guarantees a certain fiscal balance for the next few years.” Daví Alcolumbre, the president of the Senate, is even more bullish. “If the commission approves it by late June, I can ask party leaders to let me cancel the congressional recess and vote [on] it by the end [of] July,” he said. Others are more sceptical. Approval in the next two months would make the reform among the fastest constitutional amendment ever approved by Congress, said Thomaz Favaro, director for Brazil at Control Risks $255bn Expected saving for Brazil’s public finances over the coming decade from pension reforms . “This is a highly unlikely scenario given the controversies surrounding the proposal and the government’s poor relationship with the legislature,” he said. “Ignoring the concerns of undecided lawmakers at this stage would be a recipe for failure. The government needs to strike a balance between timing and the depth of the reform; any lack of co-ordination with the legislature will add risks to both sides of the equation.” For two decades successive governments have failed to persuade the required two-thirds of both houses of Congress to scale back popular benefits. This time legislators have come under heavy fire from supporters of Mr Bolsonaro, who have attacked Mr Maia and some of his peers on social media. Marcelo Ramos, chairman of the congressional committee on pension reform, said Mr Bolsonaro’s failure to properly engage with legislators means the bill barely has the support of about 200 of them — well short of the 308 votes needed to pass. “The text of the pension reform has to be revised, otherwise it won’t pass,” he said. Analysts increasingly expect public savings to be watered down to about R$700m ($200m). Recommended The Big Read Bolsonomics: the reform plans of Brazil’s new president While Mr Bolsonaro and congressional leaders agree on the need for pension reform, they differ on how best to achieve it. Congressional leaders complain that the president’s constant sniping at legislators is undermining prospects for consensus. “Brazil is a wonderful country that has everything to succeed. But the big problem is the political class,” said Mr Bolsonaro, who spent almost three decades in Congress and whose three eldest sons are elected public officials. Staunch members of Mr Bolsonaro’s power base feel that many in Congress are plotting to depose him. They recently staged nationwide demonstrations in support of Mr Bolsonaro, a move the president welcomed. Some in Mr Bolsonaro’s own party, however, believe the president should step back from his confrontational approach to get a deal. “For the love of God, stop calling on people to take to the streets,” said Janaína Paschoal, a state politician in Mr Bolsonaro’s party.