Development of a microsimulation model to forecast the Social Insurance Fund spending and revenues
The Polish Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) is by law obliged to prepare forecasts of the spending and revenues of the Social Insurance Fund (FUS) (i.e. the pension fund, the disability fund, the sickness fund and the work injury fund). A cohort model built to fulfil this requirement was sufficient to forecast aggregate spending and revenues, but, being based on average cohort values, it does not provide information on the benefits’ structure.