OECD - The advent of the direct acting anti-virals (DAAs) for hepatitis C, the increasing use of high cost biologics, and the escalating launch prices of oncology medicines in particular, have raised concerns that pharmaceutical expenditure growth could become increasingly difficult to sustain. In order to ensure adequate resource mobilisation, and to manage the entry of major new therapies, many countries see value in trying to anticipate changes in market dynamics and by doing so, to attempt to forecast future pharmaceutical expenditure.
Prepared with support from the European Commission, this OECD report explores countries' approaches to tracking pharmaceutical utilisation and expenditure and anticipating changes in pharmaceutical markets. It examines how these are used to inform the setting of budgets and spending caps, and as inputs to modelling future expenditure. Identifying key data needed to inform future projections, the report also highlights best practices across OECD countries, and proposes recommendations for countries currently undertaking, or planning to introduce pharmaceutical expenditure projections to inform future policy making.