Development of a microsimulation model to forecast the Social Insurance Fund spending and revenues

The Polish Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) is by law obliged to prepare forecasts of the spending and revenues of the Social Insurance Fund (FUS) (i.e. the pension fund, the disability fund, the sickness fund and the work injury fund). A cohort model built to fulfil this requirement was sufficient to forecast aggregate spending and revenues, but, being based on average cohort values, it does not provide information on the benefits’ structure. Therefore a random microsimulation model based on individual data on insured and beneficiaries was built to increase the range of forecasts to assist the decision making authorities in the country.

Award Region
Award Year
2016
Contact address
Anna Kwiecińska, Chief Actuary
Contact email
kwiecinskaanna@zus.pl
Country
Region
Main country
Main region